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    真人娱乐官网:高善文颠覆式解读金融危机:中国最好的政策是不干预

    时间:2018/12/29 10:05:17  作者:  来源:  查看:12  评论:0
    内容摘要:  作为市场参与者,我想谈一谈金融危机的预警、传导和政策干预问题:  基于有效市场假说的分析思路,金融危机是不可预警的。与其预警金融危机,不如让做空机制更好地发挥作用,从而让市场可以实现更有效的价格发现和价格修正功能。  金融危机的扩散和加剧主要在债务市场沿着三个链条展开,即流动...
      作为市场参与者,我想谈一谈金融危机的预警、传导和政策干预问题:

      基于有效市场假说的分析思路,金融危机是不可预警的。与其预警金融危机,不如让做空机制更好地发挥作用,从而让市场可以实现更有效的价格发现和价格修正功能。

      金融危机的扩散和加剧主要在债务市场沿着三个链条展开,即流动性危机、清偿力危机以及实体经济失速,相关的政策干预也应沿着上述三个链条进行。

      就中国目前的情况而言,应对潜在金融风险最好的政策干预就是选择不干预。让子弹再飞一会,不需要急于去救助,过度防范会导致很多风险定价工具和市场自律机制无法正常发育。

      防范系统性金融危机,具有重大的理论意义、现实意义和政策意义。学界的许多研究通过大量的理论推导、实证分析和数值模拟,对上述问题进行了较为系统的研究,提出了很多具有启发性的观点,落脚在中国的政策建议也值得深思。作为市场参与者,我想谈一谈危机防范和干预中的几个重要问题。

      01 金融危机是否可以提前预警

      第一个问题涉及金融危机的预警。众所周知,金融市场理论中有一个特别有影响力的假说,叫做有效市场假说。基于有效市场假说的分析思路,会发现预警是一个伪命题:如果金融危机可以预警,那么通过基于预警指标体系的交易,本身就可以获取巨额的利润。这就使得,所有基于公开信息和理论模型能够反复地、成功地做到的预警,最终是不可能发生的。

      2008年金融危机以后,大家对经济学理论的批评很多。人们纷纷质疑,为什么这么多的经济学家、著名学者,都没有预料到这么巨大的危机。一些有效市场假说、理性预期理论的捍卫者提出非常重要的反驳就是,如果危机是可以预期的,市场早就把它预期到了,并可以基于这种预期获利,但这反过头来又会使得危机预警失效。

      回顾20世纪以来的金融危机历史,每一次危机过后,都会有很多人说要对危机进行预警。但在100多年的历史中,并没有看到哪些人能够持续地预警金融危机。

      20世纪30年代,华尔街股票大幅下跌,有人站出来说早就预料到股市会崩盘。后来,好事者认真地查看了他的预测记录,发现他在前十几年的时间里,每一年都在“预测”明年股市要崩盘,最后终于蒙对了。然而这种预测,无论在操作上还是政策干预上都是毫无意义的。

      1997年东南亚金融危机之后,又有很多人提出要预警危机。但即便是拥有着强大经济研究能力、政策执行经验丰富的美联储,依然没有预测到2008年的金融海啸。还没等欧美学者弄明白2008年的教训,2012年的欧债危机又爆发了,也没有任何人预警出来。

      我认为,预警本身就是一个伪命题,从根本上来说金融危机就是不可预警的。无论付出多大的努力,“预警金融危机”都是在白费工夫。

      从政策角度来讲,一个更有价值的问题是——为什么市场自身事前对危机没有警觉。如果市场能对危机有一些警觉,它自己就会采取很多修正措施,反过来使得危机不会发生,或者明显降低其破坏力。如上面所说,事前的危机预警具有商业上的获利空间,可以通过做空赚钱,这一激励本身就有很强的力量防止市场走向危机。

      为何市场没有充分发挥出这种防范的力量,部分地跟现实中存在的诸多摩擦关系较大。一个重要的原因是,现实中的很多市场是没法做空的,例如房地产市场。

      金融市场理论认为,当市场存在泡沫时,做空该市场便可以获利。做空行为本身就可以修正价格,防止金融危机的发生。一旦无法做空市场,这种价格修正机制就难以发挥作用。例如,美国房地产泡沫引发危机,部分原因正是因为美国房地产市场难以做空。再比如在中国股票市场上,融券卖空是十分困难的;以前本来可以通过卖空股指期货的方法来实现价格发现的过程,但2015年股灾期间,股指期货交易被限制,到现在还没有完全恢复正常。如果中国股指期货交易是正常的,今年股票市场下跌的幅度也许就不会这么大,因为对于机构投资者管理风险而言,卖空股指期货远比卖空一揽子现货有效率得多。

      由此可见,与其预警金融危机,不如研究如何尽量减少市场存在的诸多摩擦,让做空机制更好地发挥作用,这远比危机预警更为有效。立足于健全的卖空机制的预测预警,在理论上可以自圆其说,现实中也是可操作的。

      例如,我们也许应该深入地研究和思考,如何通过金融创新手段,在市场上提供出可以卖空房价的金融工具,这对许多金融机构而言,无疑提供了一个重要的针对房价泡沫的保护,这也可以让市场自我修正机制更好地发挥作用。

      由此可见,市场本身无法预警金融危机一个重要的原因便是,市场可以自我实现。那么,为何危机又反反复复发生?我认为更深刻的原因是金融市场定价过程中存在一些基本的悖论。

      所有的金融危机,第一步一定是资产价格的大幅度修正。按照现代金融理论,资产价格是对未来现金流的预期和折现,资产价格发生大幅修正主要是因为未来现金流预期发生了明显变化。但一个基本的问题是,在哲学上,未来是不可预期的。

      未来的不可预测性与金融市场试图预测未来之间存在不可调和的矛盾。这种矛盾使得金融市场在一些时候走的太远:如果沿着悲观的方向走得太远,未来市场就可能大幅上涨;但如果沿着乐观的方向走得太远,最终一定会有大幅度的下调修正,这一点基本是不可避免的。

      没有人会知道未来的样子,金融市场一再试图预测未来,就难免会使用一些不可靠的工具,市场自身对这些工具的可靠性也心存疑虑。一旦任何一种不可靠的工具被使用到极端,都会将市场带到死胡同。

      这方面的例子数不胜数,比如2000年的互联网泡沫。作为一种全新的改变人类社会生活和组织方式的技术,互联网技术将会给人类社会带来重大的影响,如何评估和预期这种影响?实际上是很难预测的,但市场上需要基于这种预测进行交易。在一些条件下,市场预期变得过于乐观,最后便发生了大幅度的价格修正。

      再如北京金融街(6.440, 0.00, 0.00%)的房价,它取决于未来数十年现金流的预测。但70年后北京金融街房租将是多少,谁也说不清。这就如同站在1949年的时点,绝对预测不到2019年金融街的房价。既然我们预测不了70年后金融街的房价和租金,又如何利用现金流折现模型来进行定价呢?只能纯靠猜测,多数人认为合理的猜测。但问题是,猜测有时会出现大错,这一过程还存在许多反馈机制,但这不是我们今天讨论的重点。

      我想要反复强调的是,金融市场资产价格大幅度的修正很多时候是不可避免的,原因在于未来的不可预测性,但金融市场试图强行预测它,两者之间始终存在张力。一旦做空机制无法正常发挥作用,这个体系出现问题的可能性会非常大。即便做空机制完全正常工作,价格有时出现大幅的修正也是市场的正常现象。因此,我们不应试图去预警市场。预警行为往往表明,我们走到了一个极端,即似乎能够超越于市场之外预测未来,这是一种致命的自负。

      02 金融危机的传导机制

      第二个问题涉及金融危机的传导机制。相对于其他自然科学而言,经济学仍然是一个不够严密和精巧的的科学。或许为了紧跟潮流,经济学从其他科学中借用了许多名词,例如“软着陆”,这是飞行工程领域的名词;例如“均衡”,这是物理学的概念。“传染”也一样,这个词来自于病理学。从医学含义上看,“传染”似乎是指某种病菌从一个宿主通过某种接触转移到另外一个宿主的过程。如果根据这个医学定义去研究金融危机,就会发现危机的本质、或者其核心机制并不完全是金融机构之间的“传染”。

      高盛、雷曼、贝尔斯登等投资银行,在危机前都持有大量的房地产金融衍生工具,只是风险敞口有所不同。一旦整个金融资产价格大幅度下跌,一些投行风险敞口更大,会迅速倒闭;另一些投行风险敞口小一些,可能多扛一段时间再倒闭,但这并不是传染。如果与病理学进行类比,这并不是病菌从一个客体跳到另外一个客体,而是大家同时都染病了,有些人抵抗力差,先出事;而另一些人抵抗力强,过了几天才出事。从时间的先后次序上看,这种现象像是一种传染,但从本质上看,这仅仅是问题暴露时间的顺序不一样而已。所以,我觉得在危机中谈“传染”,未必恰当。

      对于金融市场而言,本质上存在两种融资方式,即股权融资和债权融资。所以金融资产价格的大幅修正也只有两种,一种是股权市场的修正,一种是债权市场的修正。这两种修正对整个金融体系和经济体系的影响不见得是一样的,至少不是高度重叠的。两者之间也许会有一些交互作用,但传导的结果却不见得是一样的。

      例如,2008年中国股票市场从6000多点下跌到1600多点,跌幅超过70%。而2015年股灾,A股市场的跌幅可能还不及2008年的一半,但对于整个金融体系的冲击却是非常不同的。究其原因,部分在于2015年涉及杠杆,2008年没有杠杆。

      又如,2001年美国科网泡沫破灭,快速传导成为实体经济的衰退,最后美联储启动降息。在这一过程中,最重要的传导链条是金融市场影响了宏观经济,使得经济减速,反过来这又对金融市场形成了广泛压力。

      以上几个对比足以说明,同样是金融资产价格的大幅修正,其对经济体系的影响过程、传导链条和所要求的政策干预不见得一致,这与金融体系的结构、杠杆的使用程度、问题市场的宏观重要性等密切相关。一个一般性的结论似乎是,如果权益市场上没有非常大的杠杆,那么资产价格的大幅修正并不太需要去干预;一定要干预的话,也要着眼于宏观经济的稳定——一旦市场大幅修正带来的财富效应等造成了宏观经济失速的风险,政府就必须要干预它。但这种干预行为本身已经属于宏观调控的范畴,不仅仅是危机干预了。如果仅仅聚焦狭义上的干预,实际上是不需要的。

      至于债权市场的修正,由于契约的特点和时间约束,很容易出现大问题,并非常快速地传导下去。

      如果不考虑国际资本流动,只考虑一个封闭的国内金融市场。那么,债权市场巨大的修正就包含相互纠缠的三个问题:其一,这会引起局部的流动性危机;其二,可能还会引发一定范围内的清偿力危机,并且流动性危机和清偿力危机是相互纠缠、相互关联、相互强化的;其三,可能还会导致整个经济活动严重失速。

      即使资产价格原来是健康的,如果债权市场出现了系统性风险,反过头来会导致资产价格大幅修正,即严重的信用市场收缩会导致资产价格大幅度的修正和宏观经济的严重失速,这又反过来会强化这一过程。

      所以,沿着流动性的链条,金融系统会走入风险扩散和加剧的过程,而这会触发清偿力的链条。这个链条上的传导过程,尽管细节上千变万化,但主要的逻辑脉络却是清晰的:一旦金融机构流动性出现问题,风险源的暴露就会加大,就会更加容易中招。金融机构的杠杆率越高,清偿力就越处在边缘位置,就会更加容易中招。

      我认为,政策干预也要沿着上述三个链条进行。

      第一,应对流动性危机的核心问题是防止挤提。存款保险制度提供了一种非常好的熔断机制,零售市场上有这种机制但批发市场上没有。在2008年金融危机中,批发融资市场上出现了挤提。本质上对于流动性危机的传导而言,最重要的就是去阻断挤提,而在批发市场上政府如何去阻断它,在一定程度上仍然是一个开放的问题。

      第二,清偿力危机的处理方式也应该是明确的。如果是小金融机构,任其出清;如果是大金融机构,要考虑政府的系统性救助,至少是政府严格监督下的有序退出。

      第三,对于通过实体经济减速和资本市场大幅修正来强化危机的这一链条,重点要防止宏观经济的严重失速。例如,2009年全球联合的干预。

      03 应对危机

      在中国最好的政策干预就是不干预

      第三个问题涉及危机的政策干预。首先要考虑的是,危机发生时,政策制定者处在一个尴尬境地,急于解决问题。但这里面存在两个悖论。

      第一个悖论,不干预也许是更好的选择,有助于克服道德风险,使金融市场变得更有生命力、更强健。但面对市场下跌,政治家很难无动于衷。

      第二个悖论,一定程度上跟前面所说的预警有关系。政策制定者可以声称通过成功预警和提前干预避免了危机发生,但是其很难证明这一点。其无法向市场参与者证明,如果没有制定某个政策,危机一定会发生。因此,很多人会质疑政策制定者在邀功。

      这种悖论使得政策制定者往往干脆等出了危机再去救助,功劳一目了然。提前预防和干预,尽管在理论上很完美,但在实际工作中说不清楚,难言业绩。从激励机制上讲,这个悖论导致即便能够及时预警和出手,也不会有事前的有效干预。

      对干预政策的选择,最困难的问题就在于是否选择进行干预。1998年,美国长期资本管理公司濒临破产,美联储的干预就是督促相关机构对公司债务进行重组,并没有直接救助相关金融机构。从事后看,这也是成功的。

      应对危机时选择不干预,市场会克服道德风险,并将会自我修正,从而变得更强健。毛主席曾说,危机暴露了敌人,教育了群众,有很多积极作用。因此,面对危机,我们也不需要惊慌失措,更不需要急于设计政策干预手段。

      当然,一旦存在发生系统性问题的巨大风险,政府就一定要干预。其核心问题在于,判断道德风险的时候,还要去判断发生系统性风险的概率。

      除了在负债端批发融资市场的挤提外,关键在于整个金融机构的杠杆是否普遍太高,在资本充足率上是否受到了严重的损害,这又与宏观冲击以及对宏观冲击的暴露有关系。

      2008年,房地产市场使得美国整个金融体系资本充足问题受到了非常严重的损害,叠加高杠杆和批发市场的挤提,成为系统性问题。

      回头看,发生危机的当时,无论是时任美国财长保尔森还是美联储主席伯南克并未意识到问题的严重性,并不知道关闭雷曼的后果,存在着非常严重的误判。这个案例清楚地告诉我们,加强对系统脆弱性的研究,特别是在危机时刻的研究是极其重要的。

      也许可以猜测,如果美联储当时把雷曼救助下来了,金融海啸也许就不会如此严重。一个非常重要的教训是,重要的、系统性的大机构需要设法保住,来控制危机的严重程度。

      反观中国,对所有市场参与者而言,大的系统性金融机构内在都是已经被保护起来的。没有人会相信中国工商银行(5.290, 0.01, 0.19%)这类国有银行会破产,甚至没有人相信招商银行(25.200, 0.35, 1.41%)、民生银行(5.730, 0.08, 1.42%)这么大的股份制金融机构最后会被推到破产清算的边缘。这些机构从来没有经受过压力测试,但是我认为没有一个市场参与者相信这些机构会倒闭,这就是整个市场的共识。共识背后有很多东西,例如政府的隐性担保等等。

      近期平台债市场出现一些问题,而一旦到了省级平台层面就没有问题,因为没有人相信中央政府会任由省级平台破产。


      这些基本事实表明,因为这一强大的心理基础和隐含的心理预期的存在,中国很难发生系统性金融危机。因此,面对金融危机,最好的办法就是让子弹再飞一会,不需要急于去救助。

      中国现在的问题,恰恰是对危机的过度防范使得很多风险定价工具和交易市场不能够正常发育起来,存在太多的道德风险。在研究金融危机的政策干预选择中,中国最为重要的问题并不是去指定系统性重要的金融机构,而是政府处置风险时胆子应该更大一些,步子迈得更大一些,让问题暴露得更充分一些。很多问题都可以在暴露过程之中得到更妥善的解决,市场也能够更好地自我发育、进化和完善。

      中国防范系统性金融风险的真正底线,是国家的资产负债表必须足够强健,在国际收支、财政账户、通货膨胀、境外借贷和跨境资本流动等宏观经济领域得到良好管理。这使得政府在最终进行系统性救助时拥有足够的清偿能力和流动性提供手段。

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